Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses something to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
