Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
